There are a lot of trek fans out there and I see no reason not to see a million subscribers in the first week the game goes on sale.  What is important however, at least IMO, is to keep those numbers there and obtaining more subscribers afterward. If it is a really great game, then word of mouth will do the rest. I'm still concerned about cryptic being bought up the way it was, but if no changes are made or interference occurs, then I see no reason for it not to succeed.

I am still on the fence as to whether or not STO can even have a shot at being successful. Not to be a negative nelly, but there are major factors in the market that indicate that STO could fall, and not because of it's own doing.

I posted this today on the Warhammer Alliance forums today:

You know, as long as WoW remains up and running, I highly doubt that any fantasy MMO will survive. Sad as it is for me to say that, I can't imagine that anyone will beat them at this point.

And unless you beat WoW, you can't win. Regardless of our feelings on WoW (love it or hate it), WoW is the undisputed heavyweight champion of MMOs.

Look at Age of Conan for a moment. Had the best chance at first to unseat WoW as champion. however, it was rushed out, incomplete and full of issues. Players left, most of them going back to WoW.

Look at Warhammer. Warhammer had one of the smoothest launches to date, and way fewer bugs than Age of Conan. But the end game is borked at the moment. Less than 6 months from release, WoW pops out an expansion and suddenly Warhammer servers become ghost towns.

So long as WoW is there to offer gamers a fall back when the new MMO they try doesn't live up to hype, has technical issues, or simply doesn't work, then no MMO will ever have the chance to succeed.

Let's look at EVE for a moment. EVE is the exception to the rule....for now. Being the only real sci-fi MMO choice at the moment, it has an edge over games like AoC or WAR. That edge being they don't have to directly compete with WoW. However, even EVE's days could be numbered, as 3 major sci-fi IPs have upcoming MMOs (Star Trek, Star Wars and Stargate) and that most certainly will make the sci-fi MMO competition cut-throat to say the least. And the competition for players will likely doom all 4 of those MMOs (EVE, STO, SGW, SW:TOR) because they all have something in common: they share fans in the WoW universe.

For the foreseeable future, so long as WoW is alive and kicking, I can't see any MMO not running into issues of loosing customers, nor being truly considered "successful" since the deck is so heavily stacked against them.

The part where I discuss the upcoming sci-fi MMOs is the main point I am getting at in regards to STO.

It is very possible that the upcoming sci-fi MMOs will "cannibalize" themselves through competition which could cause all of them to succumb to their wounds, and eventually get finished off by the beast that is WoW.

The reason I say all this is because of experience. Having tried out Warhammer, the game is quite fun and entertaining, and with the exception of the end game issue, it's a fantastic MMO. But all it took was a WoW expansion to come out to draw fans away within the span of DAYS.

Now, think about STO for a moment. Let's say STO launches as cleanly as Warhammer. Great initial numbers, lots of happy players. But then something comes up, perhaps the launch of SW:TOR. That draws away players who aren't 100% dedicated to the Trek franchise, the STO population drops. Then perhaps a WoW expansion comes out, and not only does it draw away players from STO, but draws them from SW:TOR and SGW and EVE as well. That leaves 4 sci-fi franchises competing for the fans that didn't leave for WoW, and eventually all 4 games end up with similar low subscriber numbers and ghost town servers.

the only way a new MMO will break away from WoW's hold is to benew, innovative and break out of the formula every game is doing. when a player picks up a game, plays it for 2 months and says "meh this is just like wow, but not as fun", what else are they going to do but go back to it.

the level/gear/loot system is not working, we see that. yet the game companies still try to make games form to it and they all flop.

Star Trek screams for an open system that's skill based, yet they are going level based (even if you think they're not they are, all indications are there, tier 1/2 ships that you "rank up" to inprove), screams for a prestige system that goes forwards as well as backwards (shot the Klink while at peace and you get negitive points, maybe demotion).

screams for advanced IBM cell technology, advanced AI and player driven world (ie you destroy that klink ship, if enough points accumiplate, the klinks start a war), Yet they want to "dumb it down" for the masses to play and to grab some of those elusive WoW players.

Star Trek screams for top of the line graphics, yet they show us graphics that look like they're from 20 years ago. heck the new Star wars MMO was just recently announced and the screen grabs from their Alpha blow away anything Cryptic has pumped out recently. I'm sorry but saucer that should be round looking like a hex don't cut it, asteroids tht have been labled as "spacde floating poo" and asterroid based that look out of place on the rocks and lok like basic primitives wiuth textures applied, avatars that look like 12 yr old boys with giant hands, just don't cut it as cutting edge or advanced to me.

If cryptic or any other MMO maker wats to break away and ebcome the next "Big" thing, they need to break away from the mold, and do like the early days of games, expiriment, take risks and produce new ideas!

around 500-800 000 is good , i think many forgets the inpact battlenet had on wows sucess they already had a group of fans that was 100% gamers witch star trek doesnt i bet there is alot of the st fans that dont play games and that makes it harder.

I just thought about all those ST Fans in the West, China and Japan.....oh boy, we could easily see over 1 million